Редактор «The Economist» анализирует «самый большой шок в торговой политике» из-за тарифов Трампа

Широкомасштабные тарифы президента Трампа, названные им «Днем освобождения», перевернули мировую экономику, повергнув фондовые рынки в хаос. «Это, без сомнения, самый большой шок в торговой политике в истории», — говорит Занни Минтон Беддос, главный редактор The Economist. Трамп на прошлой неделе распорядился ввести минимальный 10-процентный налог почти на все, что США покупают у других стран. Он также распорядился ввести гораздо более высокие сборы на товары, которые страна покупает у Китая, Японии и Европейского Союза. Однако многие из этих тарифов нестабильны, поскольку почти каждый день президент либо увеличивал некоторые тарифы, либо приостанавливал действие других.

«Президенты от Рейгана до президента Байдена повышали тарифы на отдельные товары или отдельные сектора, но ничего подобного. Так что это зашкаливает с точки зрения масштаба, ... скорости и неопределенности», — говорит Минтон Беддос, бывший экономист Международного валютного фонда. Хотя мотивы введения тарифов остаются неясными, она говорит, что администрация Трампа может стремиться «радикально переделать правила глобальной безопасности, геополитики, экономики». Минтон Беддос говорит, что президент, похоже, считает, что США получают плохую сделку в глобальной экономике, и что тарифы будут использоваться в качестве инструмента для пересмотра торговых соглашений: «Вполне возможно, это именно то, что любит президент Трамп. Множество людей приходят, стучатся в его дверь, заискивают, надеясь на выгодную сделку. Это «Искусство заключать сделки» на стероидах», — говорит она. Но, добавляет Минтон Беддос, экономический хаос, вызванный тарифами, создает «большую неопределенность и большую боль для потребителей, потому что тарифы — это налоги на потребителей. В конечном итоге за это платят люди, которые платят больше за вещи, которые они покупают».

«Я думаю, что мы перешли своего рода Рубикон за последнюю неделю или около того, и мы не вернемся в мир таким, каким он был раньше», — говорит она. «Люди, я думаю, все больше смотрят на США не как на сияющий город на холме, к которому мы все стремились и, конечно, очень уважали, а все больше, это своего рода хулиганская, развязная, эгоистичная, транзакционная страна». Интервью основные моменты On if the tariffs are to re-industrialize America, or if they're a negotiating tool [Trump] has two views, and it's not quite clear which of them is predominant. But one view is that if you look at the United States over the last 30 years, he thinks that the U.S. manufacturing base has been hollowed out. And the U.S. has suffered because of unfair trade practices from other countries and that you need tariffs to re-industrialize the United States and that this permanently would mean that behind a tariff wall you would encourage companies to invest in the United State to create U.S. jobs and that therefore the U.S. would fundamentally be better off if it permanently had high tariffs. That's kind of one potential view.

The other view is that he actually views these tariffs as negotiating tools, to get better deals with other countries, and that by threatening, then you negotiate a better deal with the other countries. There could be truth to both of those, but it's not clear what is actually driving President Trump, whether he primarily wants to have a kind of 19th-century view, where the U.S., in his view, prospered behind a high tariff wall. ... It's a very sort of radical shift back to an era where the U.S. was much less wealthy and successful than it is now.

On the idea that tariffs will bring manufacturing back to the U.S. The administration's logic is we want more things to be built and produced in the United States. We want manufacturing back so we can create the kind of jobs that existed in the middle of the 20th century. And so we are going to have high tariffs, which will encourage companies to come and invest and produce in America. And another way of encouraging [companies] to do that is that we'll offer lower taxes. And for American consumers, we'll get more revenue from tariffs so we can lower other kinds of taxes. That's what you hear from administration officials. …  The question for U.S. consumers, and indeed for the U.S. economy, is to say: Has the U.S. economy overall really been hurt by the current system? My answer would be no, it hasn't. It's the richest, most successful economy in the world. U.S. consumers have an extraordinary range of choice. They are better off from the competitive environment that comes from a low-tariff economy. If tariffs are raised, consumers pay more. U.S. companies have higher costs. That's why you see this incredible turmoil in the stock market right now. I don't think you end up with a system where the U.S. is better off. Nobody gains from a tariff war. And the other part of this is that countries will retaliate. We've already seen China announcing retaliation. I think others will retaliate too. And so you end up with a situation which is really lose-lose. And the goal of it is one that I think is not only unattainable, is not really advisable. We're in 2025, the U.S.'s strengths are in high tech, the U.S.'s strengths are in services, the U.S.'s strengths are not in going back to making garments, into sewing sneakers. That's not what the U.S. economy is at, and trying to force it back through tariffs, I think is a very damaging and dangerous direction to go in.

On what a tariff war with China might look like 

The impact of all of this is that tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S. will, I think, be somewhere in the order north of 100%. The knock-on effect of this, now China is more dependent on the United States for its exports than vice versa, so it will suffer more, but it can retaliate. ... If we really get into a kind of economic war, then, for example, Apple produces a huge number of its phones in China, which are now going to be hit by these tariffs, but China could put all kinds of restrictions on Apple, China could put restrictions on all kinds other kinds of critical minerals that it exports. You can get into a very nasty tit-for-tat economic battle from which nobody wins. And it becomes quite hard to get out of because there is sort of political pride and national pride in this. ... And so it's a very, very dangerous dynamic. On an opportunity opening for China The United States, by imposing tariffs on everybody, friends and foes alike, is undermining, I think, one of the core aspects of its strength, which is its alliance system and the fact that it does have very strong relations with a large number of countries. And it has the reputation of being the country that sort of set up and upheld this system of global trade and security rules. Whereas now it seems to be turning its back on that. And that is an opportunity geopolitically for China. Monique Nazareth and Anna Bauman produced and edited this interview for broadcast. Bridget Bentz and Molly Seavy-Nesper adapted it for the web.